FTM prediction
The Hi/Low game
This game has been implemented by Degen Haus for the benefit of the native tokens. All proceeds from the game go back into the project. More details here.
The aim of the game is to correctly predict whether FTM's price will rise or fall in a particular observation window (round).
An overview of the FTM prediction game
Note: the game is still in considered to be in Beta.
Degen Haus does not promote or endorse any form of wagering or gambling to users under the age of 18. If you believe you have a gambling problem, please get help from here.
Taking part in this game implies that the user understands the risks involved with gambling and that there is a minimal (but non-zero) chance of loss of gas fees in certain rare occasions.
- Make sure you have FTM in your wallet
- Every round is 5 minutes long
- You can only take part in the round immediately following the live one (see "Next" in the image above).
- You need to enter a position based on your prediction. If you think the closing price of FTM will be higher than the opening (locked) price for the next round, enter the "UP" position. If you think the closing price of $FTM will be lower than the opening (locked) price for the next round, enter the "DOWN" position.
- Commit an FTM value
- Note: You will not be able to remove or change your position once you enter it
- Note: make sure there is enough time left for the round to begin and for your transaction to be confirmed. The Haus does not bear any responsibility for reimbursing you for loss of funds.
- Your position will be recorded and you will have "entered" the round
- Once the transaction has been committed and the round begins, one simply has to wait for the 5 minutes to elapse to see the result of the round. No changes are possible after the round begins
- Once the round ends, the results are calculated and confirmed, after which the prize is paid out and the next round begins. Note: there will appear to be a delay while the results of the round are calculated. However, internally, the next round begins immediately after the current round has ended without any delay. See further information here.
- A history of the last few rounds is maintained. This may be seen by clicking on the left arrow or scrolling
Instead of blindly choosing "UP" or "DOWN", if you'd like to use some actual data in your decision making, you can make use of the FTM price chart.
Click "Charts" to bring up the FTM price chart
This will bring up the FTM price chart. The chart can be resized by dragging the resize tab (see arrow below). You can also make use of annotations and indicators (see red box below) to help you make educated guesses.
Resizing the chart and using indicators
- If you won your entered round, a "Collect Winnings" button will appear next to a gold trophy. Click the button
- A new window will appear showing the amount of FTM you can collect with a "Confirm" button. Click the button and confirm the action in your wallet
- Your FTM winnings will now be transferred to your wallet
If you have been away from the prediction game or haven't had a chance to collect winnings from older rounds, you can still collect winnings owed to you at any time.
- Find more information on past rounds you've entered by clicking on the reversing clock icon next to the round timer
- A "History" panel will open. You can click "Uncollected" to view all rounds you've not collected the winnings for yet (click a the transaction if you want to see more details). Click the "Collect" button
- A new window will appear showing the amount of FTM you can collect with a "Confirm" button. Click the button and confirm the action in your wallet
- Your FTM winnings will now be transferred to your wallet
If you'd like to see how you've done overall in the prediction game, you can view PNL (Profit and Loss) data whenever you like.
Viewing your profit and loss history
- To view a round-by-round history of the results of your participation, click "Rounds"
- To view the statistics for your historic performance in the prediction game, including your net results, average return, best round, and other information, click "PNL"
When you collect winnings, they might not appear in your wallet’s transaction logs as usual. This is because they use a different type of transaction: internal transactions. Enter your wallet address on ftmscan.com, then check the “Internal Txns” tab to confirm that they’ve arrived.
There’s a 15 block buffer on each round, which can cause delays of up to 45 seconds after the end of a round. This buffer is to accommodate for the fact that we may not be able to reliably fetch a price and end a round immediately: various blockchain factors affect the speed in which transactions get confirmed on the network.
Make sure you have enough FTM in your wallet to pay for gas fees. That FTM is needed in order to trigger the smart contract.
Markets are paused when there are conditions which affect the reliability of the contract. Markets being paused means that no bets will be taking place for the affected rounds.
The round was cancelled. Future rounds are paused until dealt with by an administrator
The markets have been paused and require intervention to be restarted
- The prediction contract has been unable to obtain the price from the ChainLink oracle due to the oracle not having posted the price at the time the round has ended.
- The prediction contract has been unable to execute an action (ending a round or getting a price from the oracle) due to the transaction being stuck in the mempool for longer than 15 blocks.
The markets will resume when an admin (one of the chefs) manually resumes the market.
If the markets pause while you have a live position, your funds will be available to reclaim, the same way as you would normally claim your winnings. To reclaim funds, you’ll need to pay some gas fees. Degen Haus cannot compensate you for the gas fees, so please bear this small risk in mind before participating.
The round was canceled. The position can be reclaimed (costs gas)
If only one side of a round has positions entered into it and if that side loses, the losing funds will be sent to the treasury. For example: User A enters an "UP" position, no one else enters a "DOWN" position. User A loses and there are no opposing positions for the winnings to be paid out to. The funds are sent to treasury.
In the very rare occurrence that the Locked Price is exactly the same as the Closed Price, no one wins, and all funds entered into positions will be sent to weekly $TRIP burn wallet.
Neither UP nor DOWN wins. Pot is burnt.
- Payout Ratio for UP Pool = Total Value of Both Pools ÷ Value of UP Pool
- Payout Ratio for DOWN Pool = Total Value of Both Pools ÷ Value of DOWN Pool
- For example, if there’s 15 FTM in the DOWN side of a round, and the overall prize pool is 150 FTM, the DOWN payout ratio will be (150/15)=10x.
- Payout Amount = Payout Ratio × Position × (1 - Treasury Fee)
- In the above case, if the round ends on a DOWN result, if you committed 2 FTM to a DOWN position, you’d get a payout of (2*10) × (1-0.07) = 18.6 FTM. Your profit would be 16.6 FTM (18.6 - 2).
Degen Haus uses two sources for the price feeds. They each have their own purpose within the prediction market:
- ChainLink Oracle:
- Used for the lock and end price of each prediction market round. This updates in intervals of 5 minutes. Our prediction contract uses the ChainLink Oracle price feed to set the prices used to dictate whether a user has won or not.
- Binance FTM/USDT
- Used for real-time price updates on the Degen Haus prediction market interface. Since we are using two different price feeds, the real-time price updates from Binance and the ChainLink Oracle price may differ by a small amount. However, they should not vary significantly.
Sometimes, after a round closes, the final result may be different from the last result shown while the round was live. If you watch a round end on "DOWN", it may appear to flip to "UP" a few seconds later. This is because we use the ChainLink Oracle price feed to determine the final outcome of a round. The period between the end of one round and the start of the next is 30 seconds, but the Oracle refreshes every 20 seconds. It is possible that during this short period, the Oracle might send an update while the transaction to trigger the next round is being minted. This can appear to "flip" the outcome of the previous round.
Last modified 1yr ago